The question of control in the immediate future – Ukraine

Here is a statement by Stefan Fule that raises some questions rather than answering many as the clock ticks on and the spiral out of control continues.

“In my talks I conveyed the deep concerns of the EU about the latest developments and underlined the need to end the cycle of violence, to fight against impunity of perpetrators of human rights violations and to continue an inclusive national dialogue to find a way out of the crisis that threatens to further destabilise the country.

My talks in Kiev showed the need for a series of concrete steps to first start to rebuild trust of people by stopping the spiral of violence and intimidation, to be complemented in a second stage by an inclusive political process leading the stability in Ukraine.”

Quite right – and says nothing that anybody with a modicum of common sense wouldn’t say – but seemingly ignores a key issue that has not been addressed over the past months by anybody with supposed leadership ability within Ukraine.

The key issue that has been continuously omnipresent and yet ineffectually addressed is that the situation exists whereby the opposition political leaders have continually been led by the crowds – rather than leading the crowds.

It is going to be very difficult to lead after following for so long.  It is a question of credibility amongst the masses who turn out to protest.  Standing on a stage spouting propaganda does not equate to leadership.

Certainly whilst Vitali Klitschko may have emerged as the natural leader amongst Curly, Larry and Mo/The 3 Wise Men – that does not necessarily translate into traction with the protesting masses.  He – as they all have – has been booed by the crowds during the past few days.

It has been clear for a very long time, the protesters both permanent and the “Sunday masses” are not there for the opposition leaders or parties – their goals are many and fortunately mostly broadly democratic in nature when it comes to eventual desired outcome.

It also has to be accepted that there are certain elements within the crowd who are not represented by any opposition leader – even in part – and their eventual desired outcome may differ from that of the majority.

In short, the political class is so far removed from Ukrainian society, deals between themselves will be seen as exactly that.  It is completely different to striking a deal with the Ukrainian constituency as a whole – and Ukrainian society seems to be challenging the political order directly and nationally.

oblast update

As has been written a hundred times or more in this blog over the past few years, Ukrainian society outgrew the feckless political class a long time ago.  Whatever the outcome of the current situation over the next few weeks, a map similar to that above seems likely to reoccur once more, should the political class fail to catch up with the expectations of society.

The standard fecklessness associated with the political class of Ukraine in its entirety will no longer be tolerated is the message – and neither will attempts dictatorship, be they on paper or otherwise.  Yet I am still unsure whether it is actually being heard and understood by any of the political class whatsoever.

In the meantime an all-encompassing national unity government seems the only possible way forward politically – whether society follows is a different question.

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