The deliberate collapsing of the coalitions in the RADA this afternoon, followed by resignations seems to have caught many – particular western – on-lookers by surprise.
In the case if the existing coalition collapses, and there is no new coalition in place, the Government and the PM have to resign.
— Arseniy Yatsenyuk (@Yatsenyuk_AP) July 24, 2014
Quite why so many on-lookers were surprised is – well, surprising.
Rumour has it the coalitions in the RADA will deliberately collapse themselves today to allow for new elections to be called for 26 October — Nikolai Holmov (@OdessaBlogger) July 24, 2014
This morning, this tweet contained within today’s entry. Not much warning perhaps.
So lets go back more than a month to this entry that explicitly predicted this occurrence and the reasons why.
Not a surprise when working to time lines – or perhaps better stated, when working backward from a certain date. For months the goal has been to set new RADA elections at the same time that local elections are to occur. That date is already set. It is 26th October.
Thus is it necessary to work back from that date to understand today’s events.
The Constitution of Ukraine states:
The President of Ukraine may terminate the authority of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine prior to the expiration of term, if:
there is a failure to form within one month a coalition of parliamentary factions in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine as provided for in Article 83 of this Constitution;
there is a failure, within sixty days following the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, to form the personal composition of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine;
the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine fails, within thirty days of a single regular session, to commence its plenary meetings.
So moving back from 26th October, adding together the one month required to allow for the forming any new coalition – which will deliberately not be formed – plus the 60 days required for electioneering, delivers us at 31st July as the very last possible day to legally fulfill the Constitutional requirements and simultaneously hold RADA and local elections on 26th October.
Therefore, that this happened on 24th July should come as no surprise to anybody. That these matters have been engineered by way of dissolved coalitions when working toward 26th October as election day for a new RADA was clear.
It is a matter of math only, to realise that it was now or never if that goal was to be achieved.
It is also a step welcomed by President Poroshenko.
There may be a war on in a small part of Ukraine, but the rest of the nation expects new RADA elections – and will seemingly now get them – with the benefit of budgetary and organisational savings when holding the two elections on the same date.
Having voted in a president with a war on – why not a new RADA and local government too?
The only thing of particular note from today when looking forward is that Vice Prime Minister Groysman is now acting Prime Minister.
— Nikolai Holmov (@OdessaBlogger) July 24, 2014
But that is predictable too.
Acting PM Groysman is a President Poroshenko man. A very capable man it has to be said, but he is of the “right horse stable”. Will Volodymyr Groysman remain Prime Minister after the elections? There’s a good chance unless he drops the ball between now and 26th October.