On 2nd January 2012, I wrote this, stating that the Hryvnia needed to devalue to between UAH 10 or UAH 11 to US$ 1 by mid 2013.
Since then I wrote this, on 1st July 2012 stating it would need to devalue to UAH 9 to US$1 by the end of 2012 and this on 22 August 2012 underscoring what I have previously written.
I am not an economist, nor banker and would never give financial advise to others. That said, as part of my Business Management degree, of course economics were necessarily part of the studies - albeit hardly to a depth to make the forecasts I have made at the beginning of 2012 have any credibility as far as any readers are concerned - and rightly so.
So, I will now at least add some credibility to my projection 11 months ago, by bringing this Bloomberg article of 22nd October to your attention.
In it, Alexander Morozov of HSBC Moscow, predicts a 10% devaluation of the Hryvnia by the year end after the elections. That 10% devaluation will take the Hyrvnia to just about UAH 9 to US$ 1 - just as I wrote so very long ago and in the time frame I stated. Hurray for me!
Further, just as I wrote on 2nd January 2012, Mr Morozov states that the Hryvnia will need to devalue to UAH 11 to US$1 by end of 2013. Hurray for me - again!
He generously allows an additional 6 months for this to happen over my prediction - but then our predictions were 10 months apart in their making - so I will bow to both his expertise and his access to information that I don’t have.
Nevertheless, it would seem that my predictions from beginning to end of 2012 relating to the Hryvnia are now supported by those who should know - albeit that support is somewhat late in coming.
It seems the last quarter of 2013 will be the earliest to consider jumping back into the Hryvnia in a serious way as there is little likelihood of a recovery in the rate before then, but a continued devaluation until then is much more likely.