Proving me wrong - Government intervenes in currency

forced intervention

Yesterday I wrote this stating that it was “interesting” Ukraine was attempting to force transparency in the extraction industries - a place from where the oligarchy wealth comes, amongst others. It is interesting because it attempts to force some transparency into what and how much is extracted, and thus will give indications of what is […]

Hryvnia devalutation almost a certainty before the year end


On 2nd January 2012, I wrote this, stating that the Hryvnia needed to devalue to between UAH 10 or UAH 11 to US$ 1 by mid 2013. Since then I wrote this, on 1st July 2012 stating it would need to devalue to UAH 9 to US$1 by the end of 2012 and this on […]

Bananas, Tanks, Ukraine and Sudan


What do bananas, tanks, Ukraine and Sudan have in common? Actually nothing, but I attempt to make a case that they should have something in common - binding international treaties. Anmesty International have just produced a report in which Ukraine is identified as a sinner for supplying at least 75 T72M1 (and many more T54/55’s) […]

Ukrainian 2012 Budget already unrealistic?

There is a possibility that the Ukrainian budget will not be met already. The reason as always is gas and Russia. It is already acknowledged by the government themselves that the budget is ambitious when it comes to the budget cutting. Now the authorities state that they will cope in 2012 and cite the budget […]

CIS Free Trade Agreement ratification likely soon

Well with all the noise amongst the chattering classes and political commentators regarding the EU and Ukraine and the stuttering progress towards the DCFTA and AA, very little attention has been given to the signing of the CIS FTA by Ukraine which I mentioned a long time ago (October 2011) in a post relating to […]

Gas and currency devaluation - Ukraine 2012

It seems to be going horribly wrong for Ukraine regarding gas supplies from Russia. Russia and Turkey have reached agreement over the South Stream pipeline traveling through Turkish waters, a matter that was the only thing preventing its going ahead. With Nord Stream on line already, pumping Russian gas directly to Germany and bypassing Ukraine, […]

EU/Ukraine summit - A day of no surprises

On the evening of the EU/Ukraine summit which has been consistently billed with more expectations than were ever possible since events relating to Ms Tymoshenko charged the dynamics of the EU/Ukrainian relationship, I was not in the slightest bit keen to discover the outcome in a timely way. In fact I went out to dinner […]

2012 budget deficit 2.8%? - Going to be hard!

As many of you dear readers will know, Irina Akimova is a woman I place head and shoulders above every other politician and political advisor in Ukraine from anywhere across the political spectrum. For me, she is the best and most sensible, academically enlightened voice in a position of influence that Ukraine possess. She is […]

Agricultural protectionism in Ukraine

Now many economists, of which I am not one, would and do claim that the EU Single Market is fairly protectionist. The last US Congressional hearing I watched via an Internet link had three US economists telling the panel that the US was also a very protectionist market as well. I shall of course defer […]

Death of an EU white elephant a risk to Ukraine – Nabucco

Well the death of the Nabucco pipeline seems to have finally arrived as I (and many others) have predicted years ago. It was, of course, doomed to failure from the outset, not because of the idea or reasoning behind it both of which are sound, but because of the parties involved and the geopolitics. Unsurprisingly, […]