The break up of Naftogaz Ukraine

Well, it was called for by the EBRD, IMF and no doubt numerous diplomats and governments behind the scenes in order to add weight to the IMF and EBRD voices.

It seems the behemoth that is the State owned Naftogaz Ukraine is going to be broken up and sold off.  To what degree it will be broken up remains to be seen, however it seems fairly certain that the gas extraction division will be one of the first to go just as Royal Dutch Shell, PetroBra, BP, Chevron, CPC etc all line up for Black Sea, Sea of Azov and shale gas exploration rights within the next 6 months.

Cynically, my first though was another oligarchy buy off at favourable prices prior to entering some major projects via a rigged and less than transparent bidding process.   It would appear however that I would be wrong.  I have been unambiguously informed that this division will be subject to an IPO and aims to raise $10 billion.

The question is where the IPO will take place.  London, Hong Kong?  Nothing has been said as yet.

Should it be successful though you would expect similar IPOs for other divisions of Naftogaz Ukraine.  Production, shipping and supplying divisions would all seem to be reasonable bite-sized chunks.

If Naftogaz is to be broken up and subjected to IPOs, one assumes that the oligarchy will turn their attention to acquiring the regional suppliers dependent upon Naftogaz Ukraine.   A wise man would keep their eyes on the likes of Odessagaz and corresponding regional entities to see which oligarchs will buy them and for how much.

The next 12 months activities in the regional gas supplier network will be an indication as to whether breakup of Naftogaz Ukraine and the IPO rumours are true.